Patriots @ Lions Munich Game Preview

just now · 6 min read

Well, last week certainly wasn’t the fireworks show we were expecting. The Dolphins matched us for grit and even went blow-for-blow, executing a fake punt to keep a drive alive. Eventually, our talent won out, especially the leg of Jake Bates, who earned a third straight NFC Special Teams Player of the Week award for the team.

This week will be a party, however, as our Lions are off to Munich, along with so many of you lucky fans. I hope anyone who has travelled for the game has a safe journey and doesn’t get too drunk on the nectar that is German beer. Of course, you didn’t come here for another moping session from me about not being able to go. You came instead to look at the matchup and how I think it will go. So I will duly oblige.

Under Pressure

According to SūmerSports, Patriots QB (and former draft crush of mine) Drake Maye has faced pressure on 46.6% of his dropbacks, which is the third-highest rate in the league. He also sports the third-highest rate of sacks for which he is partially responsible, per PFF (19.8%). Conversely, the Lions’ defence has generated pressure at the seventh-highest rate in the league.

Last week, Maye was pressured on 46.5% of his dropbacks (20/43). On those dropbacks, he went 6-for-15 (40%) for 86 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions, 1 big-time throw, and 1 turnover-worthy play. One of his interceptions was unlucky (i.e., a bobbled ball), but it is clear that phantom pressure got to Maye and rushed his process, leading to 2 turnover-worthy plays when kept clean.

While against a worse quarterback than Maye, the Lions produced a similar result last week. Willis was under pressure on 40% of his dropbacks (12/30), went 3-for-8 (37.5%) for 31 yards, and had no touchdowns or interceptions, big-time throws, or turnover-worthy plays. Willis’ lone interception came when he was “kept clean”, per PFF’s definition, and was charged to him as a turnover-worthy play.

However, it will not be as clear-cut a matchup as “get pressure on Maye and we’ll win”. Maye did have a rough start to the season (Weeks 1-3), but he has improved and is the 3rd-best QB in EPA per pressured dropback (+0.13) since Week 4, according to SūmerSports. His 13% explosive play rate when pressured is also in the top five among quarterbacks this season. Inversely, our defence is vulnerable to explosive plays when getting to the quarterback, with 14% of our pressures resulting in one. That is the second-highest rate in the league, per SūmerSports, though I suspect this has also improved since Week 5, when our defence started to turn things around.

So while we should try to put Maye under pressure, our secondary should stay disciplined and not let a scramble drill or busted coverage give Maye an out to generate an explosive play and dig his team out of a hole.

To the Left, to the Left

If the Lions’ run scheme had one glaring weakness last season, it was that runs to the left were clearly less effective than runs toward the right. In fact, traditional runs toward the gaps on the left-hand side of the line (3.8 yards per attempt) gained 1.8 yards less on average than runs toward the right (5.6). This year, it has been more balanced, but the advantage has flipped to the left, with runs toward that side gaining 0.3 more yards per attempt than runs to the right (4.9 to 4.6).

The reason for this flip is clear: Penei Sewell. Last season, runs behind Decker had 2.18 adjusted line yards (i.e., how many yards they gained before first contact). This was -0.71 yards worse than the league average. So far this season, runs behind Sewell have 3.91 adjusted line yards, which is 0.91 yards above the league average. NFL/Savant’s advanced stats concur, showing that runs behind Sewell gained -0.05 EPA per attempt, 17th in the league, compared to -0.20 EPA per attempt last season behind Decker, which ranked 29th.

This fixation on runs behind Sewell will also be an advantage, according to NFL/Savant, with the Lions having a 19% advantage in that gap in line yards. A graphic tweeted out earlier this week also shows this advantage, with Gibbs’ runs in the left-hand C gap gaining 1.5 yards before contact more than the Patriots have given up so far this season. His runs in the corresponding B gap gain 2 more yards before contact than the Patriots have given up so far this season.

Therefore, while we should try to have a varied run game, our tendency to run behind Sewell (7.7% play share) should be an advantage we can lean on in key situations if needed.

Four in a Row

As I mentioned in the introduction, we have been awarded NFC Special Teams Player of the Week three times over the past three weeks (Wonnum, Fox, and then Bates last week). Could we make it a four-peat? We definitely have the advantage over the Patriots in this phase, according to NFL/Savant’s metrics.

The Lions rank 4th in special teams EPA (+16.1), gaining +2.01 EPA per game more than the season average. They also rank above the league average in all metrics except kick return average (25.0 yards, 23rd) and tackles (57, 24th). In comparison, the Patriots rank 7th in special teams EPA (+6.71), gaining +0.75 EPA per game more than the seasonal average. They only rank at league average or better in EPA, punt return average (7.7 yards, 8th), penalties per game (0.9, 14th), and tackles (64, 16th). In fact, while you could say our kick returners have been our weakness, they are better than the Patriots’ by one place and 0.1 yards per return.

So who could win the award if we rule out a repeat performer? My candidate is DeAndre Carter, who took over Tom Kennedy’s return duties after his season-ending injury. He has brought some explosiveness to the return game that was lacking before. New England ranks 18th in average opponent drive-starting position (30.4). If he breaks a couple of big returns, he could win the award and make it a month of Lions special-teams dominance.

Hot Take:

Gibbs sets a new season-long rush, busting a field-flipping run behind the battering ram of Penei Sewell.

Score Prediction:

Going into the season, this game looked like a banger. It still will be. While the Patriots may not be living up to last season’s Super Bowl heights, they still have a quarterback capable of explosive plays, a tough defence, and a great coach. However, given the injuries on offence, the talent differential has firmly shifted in our favour. While international games are always subject to massive variance, I see the variance bouncing in our favour.