Lions @ Cardinals Week 5 Game Preview

We are all feeling glum, aren’t we? The secondary couldn’t stop a cold with a whole box of Kleenex and enough Lemsip to drown a horse. The offence is worse at starting than a classic sports car that’s sat in a garage since the last time the Cowboys made a Super Bowl. It seems the only phase that’s holding up their end of the bargain is special teams.

Usually I spend these previews spouting off stats and PFF grades and charts to try and predict how certain matchups will go. This week, however, I’ll be discussing three things for each phase of the game that I want to see when I sit down to live commentate the game with Matt tomorrow, still with some stats to back my views up because you know I love my stats.

Offense:

Start as we mean to go on. These slow starts on offense cannot continue, especially if we need to cover the deficiencies on defence. Last week was the first time we scored on our opening drive since Week 17 last year (also a field goal). We’ve only scored one touchdown in the first quarter so far this season, which is also our only first quarter touchdown since Week 14 last year (at Rams). As mid as the Cardinals have been so far this season, they’ve only allowed one score in each first quarter so far this season. When our team relies on the offence to maintain momentum and reduce the burden on the defence, falling behind and allowing the opposition to gain the upper hand undermines that approach. Allowing the defence to play an average of 6.5 more snaps per game than the offense is not helping this approach either.

Continue to limit turnovers. Goff has been surgical so far this season, having not thrown an interception or fumbled the ball (thanks to a relatively obscure rule). In fact, the only turnover we’ve committed so far this season is Gibbs’ fumble in Week 1. One thing the Cardinals have going for them is their ability to take the ball away. They rank 6th in takeaways, and 2nd in fumbles recovered. They’ve had at least one takeaway in each game so far. We can’t allow that streak to go on. Don’t give them easy possessions. Don’t put even more pressure on the flailing defense to perform.

Attack the sidelines. The Cardinals, for as much as they have struggled on defense like us, have been good at defending intermediate and deep passes over the middle. This makes sense as they run a Cover-6-based system which is designed to eliminate these kinds of throws, and their two best DBs (Budda Baker and NB Garrett Williams) both operate in those areas. They have only allowed 1 completion on 3 throws into the deep middle, and a 45% completion rate (5/11) in the intermediate middle. Those are respectable numbers. However, they have allowed at least a 60% completion rate outside the numbers, except for the deep right where they’ve allowed a 57% completion rate. Therefore, we should attack the sidelines, especially with their top two outside corners injured for the game, meaning this could be a good game for Jamo and TeSlaa.

Defense:

Stop the run. The Cardinals have a 60:40 pass/run split currently, but this is weighed down by their Week 2 game where they had to abandon the run. Pushing them into a similar gameplan, making their offense one-dimensional and forcing Brissett to have to try and win the game on his arm will benefit us, even with our weakened secondary. Our run defence looks bad according to advanced metrics (29th in EPA per rush), but this is skewed by facing some mobile quarterbacks. Brissett is one of the few starting QBs with a lower scramble rate than Goff (who ranks 33rd in the league in this stat), so we won’t have to worry about him breaking contain and hurting us on the ground. Rookie back Love earns -0.01 EPA per rush, which is surprisingly 13th-best in the league. Overall, as a team they rank 7th in the league in EPA per rush. Conversely, Brissett earns -0.04 EPA per dropback, which is the 18th-best mark in the league. Stats wise, it is more efficient for the Cards to run the ball. Therefore, it is better for us to focus on stopping the run to force them to pass than vice versa.

Limit explosives. We’ve all seen the stats of how many explosive plays we’ve given up. Our 12.8% explosive play rate is dead last. Luckily, this week should be a good week to get our numbers looking a bit better. The Cards also rank dead last in the league in explosive play rate at 3.9%. Brissett’s ADOT ranks 32nd of 38 qualifying QBs according to PFF, with his throws averaging 1.5 less air yards than “check-down king” Jared Goff (20th). Despite this conservative attitude, Brissett ranks 19th in the league in turnover-worthy play rate at 2.9% (Goff ranks 3rd at 0.6%). Forcing Brissett to pass, but also forcing him into situations where he’s also having to force the ball into tight windows, should create chances for turnovers. Stealing a possession or two should ease the burden on both the defense and offense, making it easier to win.

Come to play the Cardinals, not to play football. It was a common thought coming out of Week 1 last season that we came to play football, while the Packers came to play us. That thought has now, in my opinion, carried over to our defence completely this season. It was widely known that the Panthers were running RPOs more than any team in the league entering last week. Yet, when they dialled up those kinds of plays, it was like it was our defense’s first time ever seeing those plays. We know they like to run outside zone. We know that Trey McBride is their top target, that Michael Wilson is their top outside threat, that they don’t push the ball downfield in the passing game. Build the gameplan around that, or risk losing again.

Special Teams:

Continue the good work on field goals. We haven’t missed a kick so far this season. Keep this up.

Minimise penalties. We average 0.5 special teams penalties a game, which is the 7th-best mark in the league. Don’t give the Cardinals free yardage by conceding silly penalties.

Get more out of the return game. I get that Fipp, and the team as a whole, prefers a steady average over boom-or-bust returns. But we rank 20th in kick return average (25.1 yards), and 23rd in punt return yardage (4.3 yards). Yet, because of our great kick coverage (3rd-best in average field position for opposition drives), we have the 8th-best special teams EPA in the league. The Cardinals rank 20th in this category. If we can pair that great coverage with some more explosiveness on returns, not only will it create more chances to score, but it will also ease any burden on the offense as they would have fewer yards to go to score.

Hot Take: TeSlaa has a 100-yard day.

Score Prediction: We haven’t won an away game so far this season, but the copium in me thinks we will now.

Despite the gloominess around the team, I still gotta be optimistic. The difference in quality between our offense and theirs, and our special teams unit and theirs, is greater than the difference between their defence and ours. They will get theirs on our defence, especially McBride. But I feel we will convert on our chances more than they will on theirs. Hit the over on this game for sure.

Detroit Lions 34, Arizona Cardinals 24

How do you think the game will go? Will our Lions start to turn things around, or will we end the game parched in the desert? Let me know how you think the game will go below.

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