Lions @ Dolphins Week 9 Game Preview

Well, last week was a Pyrrhic victory in every sense of the word. We knocked the formerly undefeated Vikings off their pedestal. Still, we lost starters at all three levels of the defence (Wonnum, Campbell, and Reed), on the offensive line (Mays), and potentially on special teams (Saylors). Fox won the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week, but also inadvertently blocked a field goal with his planting hand. Most controversially, we wore our league-mandated money-grab Rivalries jersey, but it’s actually kinda grown on me, and now I really like how they look.

Anyway, that was last week. This week, our Lions take a trip down south to Florida to play the Miami Packers Dolphins. Their GM, HC, and starting QB all wore disgusting green and gold last season, and their team reeks of stinky cheese as a result. They sit at 1-6, 4th in the AFC East, with their lone win a slim field goal edging of Aaron Glenn’s Jets. However, Pro Football Reference projects them at 1.8-5.2, suggesting they are better than their record shows. Could this spell disaster for our Lions, as they could sink in a trap game? I venture not, and let me explain why…

Play Action (I Believe in Play):

Okay, I couldn’t go a few weeks without a deep-cut reference; I apologise. But I stand by the fact that play action could be key against the Dolphins, especially when combined with the deep ball. Miami ranks in the top half of the league in both EPA and success rate allowed against the run, and is the only team that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back in its last four games. While they are a bad team on paper, and so leaning on the run seems like the path of least resistance, especially later in the game when we should be ahead, it is in fact the pass that is the easier way to unlock this defence.

According to SūmerSports, the Dolphins have the worst defence against play-action passes, allowing +0.59 EPA per play (the Cardinals are 31st with +0.35 EPA/play). One in five play-action dropbacks against Miami goes for 20+ yards, double the league average of 10%. Likewise, no quarterback has more passing yards on play-action concepts than our own Jared Goff (821). The team also enters the game ranked in the top five in play-action usage (35% of dropbacks) and efficiency (+0.31 EPA/play).

One beneficiary of this matchup in the passing game would be our in-form speedster. The Dolphins allow the third-highest EPA per target on throws of 20+ air yards, Goff has thrown the most deep passes that were deemed catchable per PFF (68%), and Jamo has had half of our deep-ball targets. Miami plays a majority of zone, and 87% of his routes have come against zone, averaging 1.86 yards per route run against zone coverage. Furthermore, as discussed on the preview podcast, Miami rarely blitzes, having the fifth-lowest blitz rate in the league. Jamo averages nearly half a yard more per route when Goff is not blitzed.

All in all, spamming play action early and often, especially targeting Jamo deep, could put pressure on the Dolphins' defence, leading to early scores and opening up the rest of the playbook for later in the game, where we can then look to close the game out with more methodical drives.

How to Cover a Tight End 101:

Tight ends are still an issue for the defence, and perhaps even more so with the Campbell injury. We have conceded the most targets (80), yards (684) and touchdowns (11) to tight ends this season. In fact, tight ends have scored a touchdown against us in six of our seven games this season, including backups like Teagan Quitoriano, Jeremy Ruckert and Dawson Knox. This is good news for Greg Dulcich, the former Bruins receiving weapon who re-signed with the team in the off-season, after being elevated from their practice squad just over a year ago. He leads the Dolphins in red-zone targets and gets 78% of the team's overall tight end targets. In the past four weeks, he has a 20.6% overall target share, 70%+ route participation, and 10.0 PPR points per game (me using fantasy points as a stat, who would have thunk it?).

While Jack was our worst coverage backer by PFF’s metrics, he will still be a miss due to how he ties this defence together. The team has two options to combat the tight end issue. The first is to play Branch in a pseudo-slot role, asking him to shadow Dulcich wherever he lines up and erase him from the game. This could work, as Branch does sport a 50% completion rate, a 42 snap-per-reception rate, and a 78.0 coverage grade from PFF. However, that would reduce his utility. So while I would expect Branch to match up against Dulcich on some plays, the other option must be considered.

That option would be to have a linebacker cover Dulcich. This would likely be Barnes, given how he is stepping into the MIKE. He has been respectable in coverage this season, posting the second-best coverage grade of his career (0.3 points behind his 2024 grade). He has allowed a 72.4% completion rate, a 7% forced incompletion rate, and a reception every 10.7 snaps. However, in base, I could see it being Nowaske in his SAM role. Nowaske has also been respectable in coverage, allowing a 75% completion rate, a 13% forced incompletion rate, a reception every 10.7 snaps, and a career-high coverage grade on what is a near-high in coverage snaps (he is only 3 snaps behind his previous high of 73 in 2024).

Either way, taking away Dulcich as the hot read and the red-zone threat if they reach that part of the field will help limit the Dolphins’ pass game. Willis will still try to throw the ball deep (13.7% of his pass attempts are for 20+ yards, and his 9.3-yard ADOT ranks 4th of the 30 QBs with at least 175 dropbacks this season). However, this is streaky at best (Willis has completed 28% of his deep pass attempts), and our corners have been surprisingly good at contesting catches. By taking away his intermediate option over the middle, we’ll force him into these risky throws (15.4% turnover-worthy play rate on deep passes) or force him to take sacks.

What’s So Special About Special Teams:

Usually, rebuilding teams can hang their hat on special teams; it’s a good way for depth pieces to stand out, and it’s not hard to field a decent special teams unit considering how many league-average kickers and punters are floating around. Our own Lions ranked 7th in special teams EPA in 2021, despite average kicking (15th in field goal percentage) and below-average returning (23rd in return EPA).

However, this is not the case for the Dolphins. Despite my liking their coverage units by the “eye test”, the Dolphins rank below average in nearly every special teams metric, aside from having the 5th-best punt return average in the league. They rank last in special teams tackles, 30th in special teams EPA, 24th in special teams penalties per game, and 19th in special teams team grade per PFF. By comparison, our Lions rank below league average only in PFF team grade (17th), kick return average (24th), and special teams tackles (21st). By every other metric, they are at least in the top half of the league, including the 3rd-best special teams EPA and 9th in special teams penalties.

Therefore, what is usually a slight equaliser for rebuilding teams in a league based on the concept of parity is instead another advantage for our Lions in this matchup, and one I expect us to exploit in a similar fashion to last week, when we limited the league’s best special teams unit.

Hot Take:

After a blowout first three quarters, Vaki takes the majority of the carries in the fourth, setting career highs in attempts (>11) and yards (>65),

Score Prediction:

This could be a trap game, given how the team has had more important things on their mind entering this week, and with the Munich trip looming so close. However, we will want to win for 46, and given the talent differential between the two sides, I can see us getting out to an early lead, with some garbage-time points making it look a lot closer than it was on the field. Score early and often, then pull most of the starters in the 4th to give the second-stringers more looks (looking at you, Sione and Jackson in particular).

Detroit Lions 35, Miami Dolphins 17

How do you think the game will go? Will our Lions head to Munich on the wings of a four-game winning streak, or will they be Ray Finkle’d before jetting off for Europe? Let me know in the comments below.

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