Vikings @ Lions Week 8 Game Preview

just now · 7 min read

It’s Rivalries week, as we wear our league-mandated money-grab jersey to welcome the undefeated Vikings to our home field. The good news? My teams have a strong record against the Vikings this year. The medium news? The jersey actually looks good in person; I really like the carbon fibre details on the numbers and on the cap. The bad news? The Vikings have one of the best special teams units in the league, so this will be another week of me discussing such matters when I know most people are not sickos and prefer the other two phases of the game.

As per usual, I’ll discuss three areas of the game I’ll be watching on Sunday with the blend of stats and opinion you have come to expect from me. I promise it’ll be shorter than the bye week positional piece, I promise.

Blitzkrieg:

If there is one topic people mention about the Vikings defence above all others, it is that they love to blitz. In fact, according to PFF, they have blitzed on 165 of the 208 dropbacks they have faced. That is a 79.3% blitz rate, which ranks first in the league, as does the number of blitzes. Likewise, they rank first in blitz pressures (82) and sacks (17).

Looking at the offensive side of things, Goff has been blitzed on 37.5% of his dropbacks, which is the 17th-most of all quarterbacks who have faced 20 blitzes (37 such players). On those plays, he has been pressured 31 times, which also ranks as the 17th-most in the league, and has been sacked 4 times, which is tied for 12th-least in the league. Goff also leads the league in passing touchdowns versus the blitz, having thrown 8 with no interceptions.

Of course, that is a whole season thing, which has involved 3 different starting offensive line combinations. Therefore, looking at just the game with the presumed starting five against Minnesota (last week against Green Bay), Goff was blitzed on 42.4% (9th-most) of his dropbacks for 2 pressures (tied-3rd least) and no sacks allowed. This is great news considering the Vikings’ blitzing stats.

Furthermore, according to SūmerSports, Goff is the best QB against the blitz by EPA per dropback of the aforementioned 37 quarterbacks, with +0.32 EPA per dropback. This is 0.02 points higher than 2nd, and 0.35 points higher than league average. He is also the 11th-best QB when pressured among the 34 QBs who have taken 100+ dropbacks. His -0.195 EPA per play ranks better than QBs who are better perceived in those situations, like Lamar, Dak, Love, Stroud, Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, Hurts, and Herbert. Furthermore, despite narratives around him, Goff is only the 12th-worst QB under the same filter, when you compare the difference in EPA per play when he’s kept clean to when he’s pressured, with a -0.711 point difference. This is better than Lamar, Willis, and Jayden Daniels.

Therefore, while the Flores scheme was an issue last season, it should not be as much of a factor on this matchup due to the improved offensive line and the better level of reliability in the scheme and playcalling this season compared to last.

The ‘Call of Duty’ Effect:

It was a common meme during Kyler’s time as a starter in Arizona that his play would always fall off when the latest Call of Duty game came out, or whenever there was a double- or triple-XP weekend on the online service of the game. It was such a well-known thing that there was even a Bleacher Report article about it when he announced his CoD partnership ahead of the release of Black Ops 6. There have even been full data analyses of his play around the release of CoD games, showing a weak but definite correlation in the data.

How does this relate to this week’s game? Well, Modern Warfare 4 was released last week, and the meme held true. His offensive grade against the Colts was roughly 7.5 points lower than his season grade, and his passing grade was roughly 11.5 points lower than his seasonal grade. There was also a dip in his discrete stats. His completion rate was 8% lower than his season average. His passing yards dropped by nearly 80 yards compared to his previous game against the Saints, and his yards per attempt dropped by 1.3 points. His big-time throw percentage dropped by 2.5 points, his turnover-worthy play rate rose by 3% and was over double his season average. His adjusted completion rate also dropped by 16.5%, his pressure-to-sack rate rose by 9.5%, and his time to throw dropped by 0.35 seconds.

For a team that was already low-ranking on offence, such a drop is not good. The Vikings rank 23rd in points per game and 29th in passing yards per game. If Kyler is having his yearly dip in production, these numbers could drop even further. That is good news for a pass defence that has seen a marked improvement from the season’s start. While PFF grades are not a perfect indicator, the team’s coverage grade has increased drastically over the past two games. Having not scored above 64.0 as a team over the first four weeks, they have scored 66.8 and 83.2 over the past two games. Likewise, the team’s EPA on defence scored a seasonal best against Green Bay according to Pro Football Reference. If the Lions’ pass defence is able to take advantage of a poor Vikings’ passing offence, that could change the game script for the Vikings and put pressure on their defence in a way that hasn’t happened so far this season.

Special Teams Make Special Plays:

Depending on where you look, the Vikings typically rank between 1st and 3rd in special teams, be it EPA or PFF team grade. According to SFdata9ers, they rank 1st in EPA with +33.1, helped by their kicker ranking 1st in EPA per kick (+0.58). They are 2nd in PFF team grade with a 91.7 grade. Per NFL/Savant, they are 3rd in EPA (+16.06), 4th in return EPA (+44.2), 1st in kick-return (30.7) and punt-return average (11.4), 28th in net punt average (40.7) and 4th in penalties per game (0.5).

Comparatively, the Lions rank 3rd in EPA per SFdata9ers (+27.9), with Bates ranking 9th in EPA per kick (+0.21). They are 20th in PFF grade (75.1), largely due to poor return grades. According to NFL/Savant, they are 4th in EPA (+12.85), 12th in return EPA (+26.91), 9th in net punt average (45.1), 22nd in kick return average (25.0), 9th in punt return average (7.2), and 13th in penalties per game (0.8).

Usually we have an advantage in special teams play heading into games, but this is a rare occasion that the other team has one up over us, as slight as it might be. Therefore, Fipp needs to be in his bag on Sunday to keep his guys disciplined, especially in kick and punt coverage, as this is the area where the Vikings really hurt teams. If we can limit their returns, this can hopefully put their offence into bad positions and force their hands.

Hot Take:

Skyler Gill-Howard logs another sack as he uses his QB-scramble-seeking abilities to get Kyler down to the ground

Score Prediction:

This is a tough one. Divisional games are always weird. We saw it last week with how low-scoring it was relative to expectations. This week could be the same, where it’s a real slog. On paper, you could argue the teams are evenly matched; a top offence versus a top defence, a mid offence versus a mid defence, and two really good special teams units. However, much like the Packers’ deep passing game last week, I believe this Vikings’ defence is a bit of a paper tiger, as there is an asterisk for almost every offence they have faced so far. We are the first real test they’ve faced, and I think it’ll be shown under the Ford Field lights.

Detroit Lions 27, Minnesota Vikings 13

How do you think the game will go? Do we cause a repeat in history by giving an undefeated Vikings team their first L of the season, or do they go berserk and raid our shores for a victory? Let me know in the comments below.

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