Lions @ Panthers Week 4 Preview

1 week ago · 6 min read

Our former DC brought out the Cardiac Cats once again (thank you for that, A-A-Ron), but luckily the Jets did not end up taking us to Destination Loss. This week, we leave the Den to go to another jungle, one far more mountainous in the land of North Carolina, in a primetime hunting slot. In the second of the Kitty Cat games this week (as the Bengals and Jaguars are also facing off this week, making it the first time the four feline teams are facing off against each other in the same week), the Lions take on the Carolina Panthers, aiming for a first win in their hunting ground since the first time we faced them in 1999.

They have been hit by the injury bug, with multiple starters out before the game, including both starting outside corners, their best offensive lineman, their WR3, a starting IDL, their incumbent LT, and a former 2nd-round pick projected to start at edge. Furthermore, the game projects to be a rainy affair, so let’s hope that isn’t pathetic fallacy for how the game will go for our Lions. Despite the weakness in both teams’ secondaries, given this inclement weather, this preview will focus on the run game and special teams.

Slow the Padfoots:

The stats vary on the Panthers’ run game. Traditional stats suggest a mediocre performance is on the cards for Carolina, but some of the advanced metrics suggest areas where they could have some joy.

The traditional stats are that the Panthers are 28th in attempts, 21st in yards, 13th in touchdowns, and 11th in yards per attempt. The team has not topped 100 yards in the past two games, which includes their blowout win over their divisional rival Falcons. This puts forth a picture of a team that favours the pass (roughly a 65:35 split in favour of the pass), but when they get the chance to run the ball, they can get yards.

Conversely, our run defence is not great on paper, though this is skewed by having faced two mobile quarterbacks in Shough and Allen. We ranked 18th in attempts faced, 23rd in yards conceded, 24th in touchdowns, and 21st in yards per attempt.

The advanced metrics also paint a mixed picture. Carolina ranks 23rd in EPA per rush, while we rank 31st (!!!) in the same metric on defence. However, based on run gap data, the only advantage they have is behind their left guard, where they rank 8th in EPA/play and we rank 30th. In every other gap, their EPA/play generated is less than the EPA/play conceded by our defence.

Therefore, given the weather, if the Panthers do break their own tendency and lean on the run, they might find some joy, especially if they run behind their left guard. However, they are not well versed in running the ball this season, and given how focused our defence is on stopping the run to earn the right to rush the passer, we can hope that they might have to abandon the run as they fall behind the sticks.

Raging Pride:

Similarly, the Panthers run defence is also poor by traditional metrics, and mixed by advanced. They rank 29th in attempts faced, 31st in touchdowns given up, and 32nd (aka dead last in the league) in yards and yards per attempt. They rank dead middle of the league (16th) in EPA per rush conceded. They are the 2nd best team in the league at defending runs outside the left tackle, 19th against runs behind the left tackle, and 20th or below in runs in any other gap. Therefore, the Panthers were already weak against the run. This is compounded by the fact that both of their nose tackles are currently questionable to play in the game, meaning this run defence could be even worse.

Conversely, the Lions have been efficient if not explosive in the run game. We rank 13th in attempts, 9th in yards, 4th in touchdowns, and 10th in yards per attempt. Surprisingly we rank 15th in EPA per rush, which is perhaps caused by Gibbs’ fumble against the Saints and his boom-or-bust style that does result in occasional tackles for loss. Somehow we are 30th (!!!) in the league in EPA per rush behind Sewell, 19th in runs to his outside shoulder, 21st in runs behind the left guard (caused by Bartch’s inconsistent play?), 17th behind Tate, 10th in runs to the outside of the right tackle, 7th in runs behind them, and 4th (!!!) behind Scruggs.

Therefore, given the strength of our runs behind the center and right tackle, and the potential loss of both of their nose tackles, we should attack the middle and right hand side of their defence, asserting our dominion over the field.

Return to Sender:

This is a battle of great return coverage teams. The Panthers’ opponents start on the 25.89 yard line on average, which is the best in the league. The Lions rank 3rd with a 28.12 yard average. The difference in yardage between the two teams is roughly the same as the difference between the Lions and the Saints, who rank 17th.

Despite this, the Panthers rank 19th in PFF special teams grade, while the Lions rank 12th. The Panthers rank so low due to their 8 missed tackles in coverage, and their kicker missing an extra point already this season. Their returners also rank low. They opened the season with Jimmy Horn Jr. as their returner, but cut him after a muffed punt (and a near fumble) in Week 1. He was replaced on kicks by former Lion Anthony Tyus III, who has a 63.9 grade, and on punts and kicks by David Moore who has a 60.7 grade. Their best special teamer is Thomas Incoom, who on his 72 snaps has a 76.8 grade, having made 2 tackles, missed another attempt, and committed a penalty.

Therefore, aside from their team play on good return coverage, the Panthers do not do anything consistently well on special teams. Their kicker and punter are good, but not outstanding, and their returners are around league average. While special teams does not appear that important, in the forecasted inclement weather, a special teams turnover could be a real momentum changer.

Hot Take: Vaki posts over 25 receiving yards and 25 rushing yards on the day

Score Prediction: For some reason, the Panthers are our kryptonite. They lead the series between the teams 8-4-0. I remember the dark day that PJ Walker nearly got Dan fired in his second season. I remember the day they broke our streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher on their frozen tundra. Yet, I think this time will be different. Both teams are strong at passing the ball and weak at defending it (especially with both teams’ injuries in the secondary). Both teams are good on special teams. However, with the rain likely making this a ground-and-pound affair, it is the run game that will be key, and this is where we have a massive advantage, as I’ve outlined above. It will be close; we know our defence is still liable to slip-ups, especially in contested catch situations. Yet, I see our streak of scoring 31 points continuing, and our defence holding them to less than that. Lions win the cat fight.