Preview

Lions @ Bills Week 2 Game Preview

5 hours ago · 9 min read

Well, we never do things easy, do we? Despite it being the Sabbath, the Saints did not rest and nearly had divine intervention to help them come back and win against our Lions. Fortunately, much like Ignatius, New Orleans got mauled and had to slink away as losers.

This week, we have to leave our den to go hunt some bison in the state of New York, as we have been chosen to be the team that Buffalo will open their new stadium with. They come into the game off the back of a close win over Houston and their great defence, pointing to a potential shootout for the ages between two great offences.

But is that how I see the game going? And what will I be looking for while I watch the game in an empty train station on Thursday night?

Staying on the Track Tracks:

A big complaint about our run game on Sunday was that we were too focused on running up the middle. This is both fair and unfair. We had 12 attempts behind Scruggs against the Saints, which generated -0.06 EPA per play. We ran the ball behind both left guards 3 times for +0.35 EPA per play, and behind Ratledge 4 times for +0.16 EPA per play. While runs behind the C were worse than the league average by 0.01 EPA per play, runs behind both guards were better than the league average by significant margins (league average being +0.01 and -0.15 EPA/play respectively). Therefore, while these runs might have been frustrating, in the wider context of the league, they were around average at running behind the center and much better than league average behind the guards.

Conversely, the Bills faced 4 runs behind the center and conceded +0.63 EPA per play, which is heavily below league average (-0.05 EPA per play). They also faced 7 runs each behind the left and right guards, and conceded -0.27 and -0.13 EPA per play, which is better than league average for left guard runs (+0.01 EPA per play), but just below league average behind the right guard (-0.15 EPA per play). This weakness against inside runs could be down to two factors; their new defensive scheme, and changes in personnel on the defensive line.

To address the latter, the team no longer has veteran NT Daquan Jones on the roster, instead moving last year’s 4th-round pick Deone Walker into this spot. Based on last year’s PFF grades, this is a massive downgrade. Jones had a 13-point advantage over Walker in defensive grade (72.0 to 59.0), and 18-point advantage in run defence grade (63.5 to 45.5) last season. And for the former, the team has changed from the 4-3 under scheme under McDermott to a 3-4 storm scheme under new coordinator Jim Leonhard. Leonhard came to Buffalo from Denver, bringing the aggressive storm scheme that Vance Joseph uses that is similar stylistically to the scheme Todd Bowles runs in Tampa.

The issue with this scheme against inside runs is that if the linebackers do not correctly fill their gaps and instead overshoot, it leaves holes for the running backs to hit for large gains. This is good news for Gibbs, who forced 7 missed tackles against the Saints and had 7 runs go for more than 10 yards. Similarly, this could be a good game to use Saylors on offence, as he too was productive running the ball in the preseason, forcing 7 missed tackles and gaining 4.23 yards after contact per attempt. By using the Bills’ newfound aggression against them with traps, draws and counters, the team would be able to get the linebackers to overshoot the run. Therefore, as much as it might be maddening to see more inside runs, especially when some of them might be for small gains, it will lead to big runs that can gash Buffalo’s defence for yards and, perhaps more importantly, for time. Every second we can take by running the ball is one less second that Allen is able to use to hurt our defence.

Stampede of Buffalo:

As I just mentioned, the Bills have changed defensive coordinators and philosophy during the offseason. They have gone from being a conservative passive scheme to a more attacking aggressive one. This is born out in their blitz percentage on defence. Last year, the Bills blitzed on 21.8% of their defensive plays, which ranked 22nd in the league. Against the Texans, the Bills blitzed on 24.7% of their plays, which ranked 17th. This might seem like a small increase, but in terms of how the team will gameplan for this, it is enough of a change for it to be considered. It is also a singular data point that was influenced by Leonhard believing that a four-man rush should be sufficient against Houston’s weak offensive line. Against our more potent offense, he might dial up more blitzes to try and stifle us.

Despite the narrative surrounding him, Goff is not a bad quarterback when blitzed or faced with pressure. Goff was blitzed on 29.3% of his dropbacks against the Saints. On those 12 plays, he completed 8 passes for 83 yards, one touchdown, a 114.2 passer rating, and a 65.3 offensive grade. On the 9 dropbacks on which he was pressured, he completed only 3 passes, but he had a 60% adjusted completion rate, a 11.1% pressure to sack rate, a 106.5 passer rating, and a 61.3 passing grade from PFF.

Given that this will also be the second game in the new system for a lot of their defenders, these holes will potentially be especially big as the secondary will not have worked out the right depth to be at to cover the weaknesses left vacant by the blitzing defenders, much like what occurred in the second half comeback by the Saints against our defence. As I hypothesised in the last section, running into the Buffalo blitz might yield some good results. Similarly, if the offensive line is able to withstand the blitz for the most part, Goff will be able to replace the man with the ball, carving up the space left behind by the blitzers for big gains.

Hunting Zone:

It is well-known that the Lions are a press-man team. We played man on 25.4% of our defensive snaps against the Saints. As with the Bills’ blitz rate, this doesn’t sound a lot, but this was influenced by the gameplan (we only played man on 12.5% of our defensive snaps in the first half, and 35% in the second half and overtime combined). Last season we hung around 35%, which ranked near the top of the league. Our team is built to play this kind of coverage, which is why it was irritating to see us giving the Saints’ receivers such a massive cushion on some plays.

However, I am going to advocate for us to play less zone concepts against the Bills. This is going to sound counterintuitive at first. Conceptually, you want to play as much zone as possible against a QB who is a scrambling threat, so your secondary has eyes on said QB and so can crash down on any runs. Nevertheless, I would like us to emulate our defensive gameplan from Week 3 last season, when we held Lamar Jackson to 288 yards passing and 35 yards rushing. In that game, our corners were in man coverage on roughly 35% of their snaps, around our average for the year. This suggests that our adjustments to contain Lamar were not in the secondary, but rather up front.

By leaving our corners on islands in man coverage, not only will we be playing their strengths, it will also free up one of our safeties to play in the box closer to the line of scrimmage as an extra defender against the run but also so they can cover a tight end in man coverage. This extra box defender, combined with a QB spy package like one we deployed last year against Lamar (and in spurts against Shough on Sunday), should restrict Allen’s ability to break the pocket and make plays on the move, forcing him to play in the structure of the offense and potentially opening him up to being sacked.

Singularly the Bills’ weapons are not much to be afraid of outside of potentially Kincaid: but when combined with Allen’s improvisational ability, they become a lot more potent. Restricting this ability should restrict their offense’s best way of creating explosive plays. Getting sacks would be even better. In games in which Allen is sacked twice or less, the Bills have a 79% win rate. This drops to 43% when he’s sacked thrice or more in a game. Getting pressure while maintaining rush integrity is vital to winning the game.

Hot Take: Skylar Gill-Howard gets his first “proper” sack as a Detroit Lion

Score Prediction: This game has all the hallmarks of a battle akin to the Battle of Plataea. Why that battle you ask?

1) I’m an ancient history nerd, especially for that period of history so of course I’m gonna go there

2) It was the decisive land battle in the Second Greco-Persian War where the Greeks went into Persian territory, routed them, and killed up to 100,000 of their soldiers if some sources are to be believed.

While I’m not anticipating the decimation of a military force come Thursday night, it’s a mighty encouraging comparison to make. In our yearly season/record prediction show, I had us losing this game by one score. However, a mixture of copium, our first half defensive performance against the Saints, the fact that the Texans put 30+ points on this Bills defence, and (as our own Antony Fitzpatrick pointed out on our preview show for this game) the fact that if we want to win a Lombardi, we need to be winning these kinds of games, I’m changing my prediction to a close win. There’s still gonna be fireworks, but it’ll be our army coming out victorious.

Detroit Lions 34, Buffalo Bills 31

How do you think the game will go? Will the Lions win the Lake War, or will they have to beat a hasty tactical retreat like Thermopylae? Tell me what you think in the comments below.

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