Saints @ Lions Game Preview

To quote Fabrizio Romano: “Here We Go”. It’s Week 1, and our Lions are coming out of their den, hunting for a Super Bowl. The first prey on their prowl towards LA, and ultimate glory, is the Saints. Can New Orleans’ godliness protect them from being mauled by our Lions? We can hope there is no divine intervention come the Sabbath.

With this being Week 1 and no data points to base predictions on, this preview will focus more on what I’ll be looking for during Sunday’s game than on which matchups we should exploit to stand the best chance of winning.

Interior Design:

For the most part, I am not worried about our offense. Goff will be Goff, our WR group has two superstars and two contributors, our TE room is a star and three contributors coordinated by the OC who made Trey McBride a superstar, Gibbs is a weapon in the best way, and Saylors will be able to do damage on the ground. My only worry is the interior of our offensive line.

Will Tate keep his upward trajectory going from playing between the best tackle in the league and a veteran of the system, to a rookie tackle and a backup center? Will Scruggs show the flashes of talent he did at center for Houston at times, or will we get the streaky play that got him shipped away by the Texans as part of the Monty trade? Is Mahogany or Bartch the starter at left guard, or is the dreaded guard rotation on its way back to Detroit?

We had similar worries last season with Tate being a rookie, Glasgow sliding in the middle after Ragnow’s shock retirement, and whether Mahogany could be a consistent starter after the brilliance of his cameos in his rookie season. And we all remember how that game in Lambeau went in Week 1.

So I’ll be watching to see if things are different this year. If they are, we should have a great game, especially with the Saints’ interior defence line weakened by the loss of Breese for the season and Cam Jordan unavailable for this game. However, if the same worries carry over into this season, the offence could suffer with Goff facing quick pressure in his face and the lack of drive to open up holes for Gibbs to blaze through.

Blitzkrieg:

We heard from Brad this week about how the team wanted to get more juice getting to the quarterback. We saw the beginnings of that plan with both DJ Reader and Roy Lopez leaving in free agency, leaving second-year DT Tyleik Williams as the only “nose tackle” on the roster (though Alim McNeill has experience there if needed). Then the team drafted the pass-rush upside of Skyler Gill-Howard in the sixth round of the draft. During training camp, the team signed veteran off-ball ‘backer Devin White after the injury to rookie linebacker Jimmy Rolder.

All those moves pointed towards a more aggressive style of defence (though not gap-shooting, Dan is very insistent on that). This perhaps is a welcome change in the eyes of the fanbase, as some have been discontented with the more plodding run-first style that the team has deployed in recent seasons. The team has always been one of the best run-stopping units in the league over the past few years, but has always ranked near league bottom in stats like time to pressure, quick pressures, and time to throw allowed. Perhaps we should sacrifice a bit of this run focus to put more pressure on the opposition, and perhaps give the secondary a shorter window for when they have to cover.

During the preseason, we showed that the team has also gotten creative with how they are planning to create this pressure, and it is this that I’ll be keeping an eye out for. How are they using stunts and twists (something that was sorely missing from our pass rush plan in recent times)? How often are they send blitzes and simulated pressures with White, Barnes and Rodrigo? Will they use DB blitzes as well to create confusion? But perhaps, most importantly, how often do our four-man pressures get home?

Rotisserie Linebackers:

The final thing I’ll be looking out for is how our linebackers are used, and when.

With the loss of Alex Anzalone to the Bucs in free agency, the team now has a lack of coverage ability in its off-ball linebackers. For as much as Barnes’ best play in a Lions uniform is him intercepting Baker Mayfield in the divisional round, coverage is not his strong suit. Jack Campbell is a good zone defender, but asking him to go man-to-man on a running back is a misuse of the man. Rodrigo has the build to be a coverage linebacker, but it’s never really been his strong suit either. There’s also nothing further to be said about Devin White’s coverage skills that hasn’t already been rehashed a million times by various platforms since he signed with the team.

This lack of coverage from the linebacking corps at present, the team’s seeming disregard in trying to replace Anzalone’s skillset in this department, and their focus on nickel back in the offseason (exemplified by the signing of Roger McCreary and the drafting of fifth-round rookie Keith Abney II) all points to a change in defensive philosophy to a 4-2-5 base set. Last year, we used base personnel more than any team in the league. This was due to Anzalone’s coverage ability almost replacing the same ability a slot corner would provide in the aggregate when combined with Brian Branch’s ability as an overhang defender to also act as a slot corner when facing 11 personnel.

This will mean a change in how the linebackers are deployed. We will still see these base looks, especially against teams that use heavier sets. Jack will still be an every-down player as the green-dot MIKE, and Barnes will likely still be the first man up at the SAM, meaning either Rodrigo or White will then man the WILL in three-linebacker sets. But in other packages, depending on the situation, you could have any one of Barnes, Rodrigo and White beside him at the WILL beside Jack. As mentioned before, this personnel would lack coverage ability, something that other teams will likely try to exploit. However, these potential WILLs all could offer blitzing ability, something we haven’t really utilised in a couple of seasons from our linebackers. Barnes could be the run-down WILL, based on his run defence being his best quality. White would be the blitzing WILL, as his calling card was always his pass-rushing ability from the off-ball position. Rodrigo arguably offers the best mix of both, while also offering the most upside in coverage of the three. However, since we mere mortals will be able to figure this out, offensive coordinators worth their salt will be able to as well. Therefore, what I will be looking out for is how Shep plays the chess game against Kellen Moore in how he rotates and deploys our linebackers to create mismatches and get the upper hand,

Hot Take: Jamo takes Quincy Riley to the cleaners, going for 100+ yards and a tuddy

Score Prediction: The Saints are a good team. They finally took their medicine cap-wise and are on their way to becoming a contender again, which is, of course, helped by the division they play in. However, their roster is still a year out from truly contending in meaningful games. Even with the deficiencies in our roster, the Saints also have their issues, and with this being a home game and the team as healthy as it can be wear-and-tear-wise, I can see our superior talent winning out. It might be close to start with, but by the end Kellen Moore’s return to Detroit becomes a nightmare.

Detroit Lions 31, New Orleans Saints 21

How do you think the game will go? Will the team get the season off to a winning start, or will the Saints be the devils in the way of our path to the Super Bowl? Let me know your thoughts below.

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