Preview

Jets @ Lions Week 3 Game Preview

2 weeks ago · 6 min read

To quote The Inbetweeners: “Well, that was f***ing dreadful”. We don’t need to rehash what went wrong last week against the Bills; we’ve heard it over and over since. Instead, we shall look forward to a homecoming of sorts for Aaron Glenn, as he brings his New York Jets to Ford Field.

The Jets are off to a surprisingly good start. We perhaps expected them to beat the Titans, though a revenge-match win for Robert Saleh was not out of the question. For them to lose to the darlings of the media last week, especially in the fashion they did, was a blow, but they can take a pseudo-moral victory from their performance. Their defence is first in yards and first downs allowed, sixth in points allowed, fifth in PFF team grade, and sixth in EPA per play allowed. However, one could argue that the standard of offences they’ve faced is subpar which has inflated their numbers, and that we will be the first real test they’ve faced this season.

So what stuff will I be trying to look for when the Jets fly in to face our Lions and hopefully be our prey to 2-1? How do I see the game going? Let’s find out.

Ground the Jets:

The key to stopping the Jets’ offence is to stop the run. In their win over the Titans, they rushed for 152 yards. In their loss to the Packers, this was more than halved to 67 yards. The team ranks fourth in rush attempts and fifth in rushing touchdowns, but 17th in rushing yards, and 28th in yards per attempt. Shutting down Hall and Allen, and thus forcing Geno into a pure dropback game, will take away their chance to try and reduce possessions to keep the score down, but also will play to the current strengths of our scheme and personnel.

The stats disagree with me on that last part, however. Currently, our run defence ranks 22nd in run attempts faced, 28th in yards allowed, 29th in touchdowns conceded, and 25th in yards per attempt allowed. However, this on the back of a 203-yard performance last week, where the Bills were running down the clock in the second half with last year’s rushing leader, and Josh Allen burnt us on scrambles early on.

Geno, while being mobile, is not Josh Allen, and Hall’s bulking up to protect against injury has affected his rushing efficiency (3.4 yards per attempt). Reducing our blitzing tendency and playing sound gap discipline, like we did last season, should be enough to contain their running game and reduce the stress on the secondary.

Call Off the Airstrikes:

Speaking of the secondary… our safety room is so beaten up, that anyone who has danced to Men without Hats are now candidates for our practice squad.

Candidly, the secondary has not been up to snuff so far this season. 31st in yards allowed. 29th in touchdowns. 20th in net yards per attempt. Yes, the safety room has suffered some injuries (and were already missing the two All-Pro calibre talents in that room before the season). Yes, our presumptive CB2 was cut after being a very naughty boy. Yes, we are playing more zone than we have in previous seasons. However, that doesn’t excuse some of the coverage lapses we have witnessed in recent weeks.

This could be a reset week for the secondary however. Coming into this game, the Jets rank 13th in passing yards, 27th in touchdowns (1!), 14th in net yards per attempt, but first in interceptions (0!). They have ruled out their TE2 with a thumb injury, their WR2 is questionable to play with a hand injury, and they’re elevated one wide receiver from the practice squad, and signed another one from the practice squad. This doesn’t bode well for their ability to pass the ball.

Therefore, even with our lack of safety depth, and the weak play of our cornerbacks, they are going up against a similarly weak receiving corps. A strong pass rush, especially against a more veteran pocket-passer type of quarterback, could get Geno off platform and force some mistakes from him. However, if we blitz at the rate we have in the past games, he will be able to “replace man with ball” and pick apart our coverage. Rush four, play more man, simplify the scheme so the players know what they’re doing. Simple.

No Special Manoeuvres:

Last year, the Jets were one of the best special teams units in the league. They ranked 3rd in PFF team grade, and Andrew Beck ranked 11th (of all players who played more than 300 snaps) in individual grade. So far this season, they rank 22nd, and Beck is once again their highest ranked individual player (19th of all players with more than 40 special teams snaps).

One way this decline in special teams play is manifesting is in the average starting position of drives. While this stat is skewed by turnovers, it can be a useful indicator of how a team’s special teams units are performing. Last season the Jets had the sixth best average for their offensive drives, and 26th for defensive drives. Admittedly on a smaller sample size, this has dropped to 21st on offensive, and slightly increased to 19th on defensive drives this season (helped by the Jets not having a single offensive turnover so far this season). This speaks to a drop off in their return game (such as Williams’ two muffed punts against the Packers), and a slip in kick coverage akin to our own at the beginning of last season.

This is something we could exploit tomorrow, as our own average starting positions are much better. We rank 12th on offence, and 8th on defence for average starting field position so far this season, and our special teams unit ranks 10th in the league in team grade. Camp darling Tay Martin ranks 4th in individual grade for players with more than 40 snaps on special teams. Perhaps more surprisingly, Tom Kennedy currently ranks 7th in punt return average (minimum of 3 returns), and Saylors ranks 17th in kick return average (same minimum). Therefore, look for special teams to be a momentum changer against the Jets, especially to help remedy our usual slow starts on offence.

Hot Take:

We score a special teams touchdown for the first time in nearly a year (Wk 4 last year)

Score Prediction:

We should be bouncing back this week. Yes, we have the slight excuse that we faced the Bills in their home opener, so it was going to be a tough game. But if we’re going to be playing in Championship games, we need to be able to play well against those kinds of teams, in those kinds of environments. The Jets should pose less of a threat, but it is a threat we need to deal with to get back on track. Their defence is good, but their offence is banged up. It’ll be a battle of strength on strength, weakness on weakness, but our star talent should be what swings things in our favour.