Lions Bye Week Team Grades

The Lions have been on their bye week, and it’s given us all a chance to sit back and assess where things have gone right, and what needs to improve for us to be competing in meaningful games come late December and January. Admittedly, it’s over a small sample size of five games, but at 3-2 and the manner of performances we’ve seen from all the units, there should be enough to work off to form a rudimentary idea of what the Lions are this season.

We know the coaches will be pouring over every second of film to form their analysis. I will go for more of a broad statistical approach, as I will endeavour to write an assessment of each positional group, and grade them on how they’ve performed so far this season.

(All stats are pre-Week 6, PFF referenced a lot as a comparison tool across the league)

Offence

Quarterback: A+ Jared Goff should be an MVP candidate. He has triple the number of passing touchdowns without an interception as the next two quarterbacks who haven’t thrown a pick (Drew Lock and Marcus Mariota). He is 2nd in passing yards, first downs, and touchdowns, 3rd in passer rating, 4th in the league in adjusted EPA per play, 8th in success rate, 9th in net yards per attempt, and 12th in QBR. The only negative to Goff’s play so far this season has been conceding a couple of (near) strip sacks.

Running Back: A This is a hard group to grade, especially since we have only really seen two backs on offence.

Gibbs alone ranks 2nd in the league in attempts, 4th in rushing yards, 1st in first downs by rush, 2nd in rushing touchdowns, and 9th in rushing success rate. He is also tied-29th in the league in targets, tied-12th in receptions, and tied-15th in receiving success rate. The only negatives to Gibbs’ play are the lack of explosive runs we are used to, and that the team is running him into the ground (he is on pace for 449 touches this season).

Vaki had a rough start to his season (we all remember the play he blocked Penei on, leading to a sack). However, he has shown some real ability as a power back with sneaky receiving upside. His biggest strength has been his pass-blocking. Of the 45 running backs to have at least 20 such snaps this season, Vaki ranks 12th in grade, 13th in efficiency, and 6th in pressures allowed, per PFF. We can hope that as he is given more snaps, he will continue to grow into his RB2 role long-term.

Overall, the team ranks 18th in rushing attempts (largely due to the game scripts forced on the offence by the defence), 14th in yards, 13th in yards per attempt, but 4th in touchdowns. If the defence does improve and the offence is in more favourable game states, we can expect some of these numbers to climb. However, we should give Vaki and Saylors more snaps on offence to spell Gibbs and keep him fresh long-term, as his current usage is likely unsustainable.

Wide Receiver: B+ This is a harsh grade, I know, but hear me out.

Amon-Ra ranks 2nd in the league in targets, but 5th in receptions, therefore ranking him 110th in catch rate. He also ranks 12th in yards, 3rd in touchdowns, and 6th in first downs, but 84th in yards per reception and 105th in success rate. Of the 68 wide receivers with 20 or more targets, he is 27th in receiving grade and 34th in drop grade, per PFF. He is still our alpha receiver, but some of the reliability and efficiency we associate with him have quietly been missing so far this season. Of those 68 receivers, St. Brown ranks 31st in contested catch rate and 36th in drop rate. We need this to change when we hit our divisional games; we need him to take over big games to help us win, even if teams are sliding coverage his way, as the Jets did.

Jamo ranks tied-42nd in targets, 58th in receptions and 126th in catch rate, but 26th in yards, 15th in yards per reception, tied-22nd in first downs, tied-28th in touchdowns, and 28th in success rate. In the same filter on PFF that was applied to St. Brown, Jamo ranks 53rd in receiving grade and 67th in drop grade and drop rate. This is not all his fault; there have been quite a few near misses in terms of hitting him deep, which makes sense since he currently is tied for 4th in ADOT of the aforementioned 68 receivers, and the fact that teams have been playing conservative coverage to minimise his explosive play potential. His contested catching has been a real strength considering his archetype, ranking 29th of the 68 receivers mentioned, and his run-blocking grade ranks 10th of all receivers who have more than 50 such snaps on the season. A few more connections deep and things will open up for Jamo and the rest of the offence.

Receiving-wise, TeSlaa is the 5th read (at least going by target share), but he has been quietly impactful on those targets. He has already beaten his long from last year, his yards per reception have crept up by 6 yards, and his 0% receiving success rate has exploded to 42.1%. His yards per reception ranks 2nd in the league for all wide receivers who have had more than 15 targets on the season, and his ADOT ranks tied-8th. PFF doesn’t think he has been impactful on run blocking (43rd of 65 receivers with ≥50 such snaps), but he is still doing this dirty work while growing as an X receiver (as he was primarily a big slot in college at Arkansas).

Overall, I feel harsh for being so critical of the receivers, but when they are such a key part of the team, and we have as much money as we do in the position (~9% of the cap), we know they can perform so much better than they have so far this season. I know teams have played deep shells to minimise Jamo as a deep threat, and teams have worked out some ways to bracket St. Brown, but that should open things up for other players, not be a hindrance to the offence as a whole.

Tight End: B+ Again, this could be a harsh grade, but when only one of the four tight ends to have appeared on offence has really made a positive impact, it’s fair.

LaPorta entered the bye tied-4th in targets, 4th in catches, 30th in catch rate, but 1st in yards. He also ranks 24th in yards per reception, tied-5th in touchdowns, 4th in first downs, tied-3rd in drop rate, and tied-18th in contested catch rate. Of the 30 tight ends with at least 15 targets on the season, LaPorta ranks 3rd in offence grade, 2nd in receiving grade, tied-2nd in drop grade, and 3rd in fumble and grade. Out of the 51 tight ends with at least 75 blocking snaps, he ranks 35th in run-blocking grade and 15th in pass-blocking grade. He has one of our most reliable players on offence despite coming off a back injury and playing in the midst of contract discussions, but he is showing why he is a key part of our success.

However, our other tight ends have not been as good. Brock Wright is averaging a catch a game, and his blocking has not been great. Tyler Conklin has bounced on and off the inactive list, and has played less than 25 offensive snaps so far, not making a catch and not even reaching an average level in blocking according to PFF. Meeks has made one catch, but is still a bit-part role player with just over two snaps a game so far. Given how teams have been focusing on our wide receivers in the passing game, and how multiple tight end sets are becoming more and more common, we need one of these guys to step up alongside LaPorta to further open things up for the pass and the run.

Offensive Line: A This unit is much improved from last year, despite playing without our big catch in free agency taking a snap so far. Sewell has made the transition from right to left almost seamlessly. Miller has been as good as advertised. Ratledge has been great considering some of the turbulence on his shoulders. Mahogany has taken the bull by the horns given the challenge presented to him by Bartch. Scruggs has shown why he was a fairly high draft pick out of Penn State while filling in for Mays in his natural position of center.

The only negatives of their play so far is that disastrous start by Borom against the Bills, where he surrendered half of the sacks credited to the offensive line in one game, and the missed assignments in the first quarters that doom drives. While Miller has committed five penalties so far this season, this can be excused as rookie growing pains, and we should be confident in these regressing to the mean as he gets settled in at the pro level. Overall, we should be really happy with the play of the offensive line, and long may it continue.

Defence

Interior Defensive Line: A Much like the aforementioned offensive line, the defensive line has been great. Alim has gotten back to his best, Tyleik has grown as a pass rusher, and podcast-favourite Skyler Gill-Howard has been a revelation at the first guy off the bench in the rotation.

After tearing his ACL and looking like he wasn’t at the races last season coming off said injury, Alim is living up to the extension he signed and is acting as a real force on the interior like we were hoping he would. Of the 53 IDLs to play 170 snaps or more, Alim ranks 5th in defensive grade, 11th in run defence grade, 5th in coverage grade, and 8th in pass rush grade. He ranks 1st in pressures, and tied for 20th in run stops.

Likewise, Tyleik has quietly shown why he deserved to be picked as high as he was in the last draft. He ranks 20th in defensive grade, 16th in run defence grade, tied-7th in tackling grade, and 27th in pass rush grade. He is 33rd in pressures and 39th in run stops.

However, as I half-referenced above, it is the play of Gill-Howard that has been the big surprise. He ranks 41st in defensive grade, 39th in run defence grade, 14th in tackling grade, 43rd in pass rush grade, and 11th in coverage grade. He has the most pressures of any rookie IDL, and is tied 13th overall. This high coverage grade may not be a shock given his background as a linebacker, but while his rankings seem low, they’re still in a starting range (i.e., top-64).

However, the other two IDLs haven’t had many snaps this season so far. Combined, Levi Onwuzurike and Ben Stille have played 68 snaps and made one tackle. If we could get one of these players to step up and take some snaps off of Alim’s plate to keep him fresh, that would be great for the team long-term and earn the unit an A+ grade.

Edge Rusher: B+ As I mentioned above, the defensive line has been great. However, as the edge room has largely been Hutch and Wonnum, with no other player standing out in the depth behind them, the room as a whole gets a lower grade than the interior.

Hutch is currently PFF’s No. 2 edge, despite playing more than 40 more snaps than the next player. His pass-rush grade is the best among edges with at least 170 snaps this season, his run defence is 14th, tackling is 25th, and he is 26th in coverage grade. Perhaps his biggest impact is not shown on the stat sheet, though, as his presence has opened things up for the other linemen, giving them one-on-ones to win, which they have been doing. For instance, one of Wonnum’s sacks against the Cardinals came with Hutch drawing the attention of at least three fifths of their offensive line, leaving Wonnum with a clear rush path around the left tackle’s shoulder.

Speaking of Wonnum, PFF has been lower on his impact than the eye test shows. He is 44th in overall defensive grade, last in run defence grade, 15th in tackling grade, 30th in pass rush grade, and 48th in coverage grade of all edges with more than 170 snaps. These seem low, but again, like with Gill-Howard, are technically starter-level, as he is in the top 64.

The other “starter” has been Tyler Lacy, who is playing the Josh Paschal perfectly insofar as he does his job of holding the edge against the run and pass, but not much more. However, second-round pick Derrick Moore has barely made an impact, with him still in training camp mode for all intents and purposes. He has only played 72 defensive snaps, getting two QB hits and two hurries, and one run stop, but hasn’t flashed yet. Rookie UDFA Eric O’Neill has been relegated to special teams, and crowd-favourite Ahmed Hassenein has been inactive so far this season due to him learning how to play within the structure of the defence.

If we could get a bit more from some of the second-string guys, even if it’s just to reduce Hutch’s snaps to keep him fresh, that would be great. It would also raise the floor of the pass defence, as we could have more weaponry to pressure the QB.

Linebackers: B- To be frank, this group has been the most disappointing compared to my expectations coming into the season. We have a defensive coordinator who used to coach this position, a first-team All-Pro coming back on a big extension, a veteran who was supposed to be getting back to his best, another vet back on a one-year deal to compete for a starting spot, a rookie drafted to be trained into the Anzalone replacement, a former UDFA holding down the LB5 role, and veteran additions supposed to provide quality depth and special teams. Only two of these have really come through as they were supposed to.

Jack has taken a step back so far this season. This comes down to three factors, in my humble opinion. The first, and perhaps most obvious, is that he doesn’t trust who he is playing with, and so is trying to overcompensate with his play to cover their deficiencies, leaving himself exposed himself. The second is the loss of both Reader and Lopez up front, leaving the team without a true nose tackle, and so he is not being kept as “clean” as he was last season, making it harder for him to rack up the easy tackles. The last is that the team moving to more zone coverage has meant putting him in positions that he is not as comfortable with as before (i.e. Jack is a lot better in man coverage than zone). Of the 72 linebackers to have played at least 100 defensive snaps, Jack ranks 51st in defensive grade, tied 22nd in run defence grade, 6th in tackling grade, 46th in coverage grade, and tied 65th in blitzing grade. He is tied 20th in pressures, 12th in missed tackle rate, tied 35th in run stops, and tied 43rd in catch rate allowed. Overall, Jack has perhaps regressed to the mean slightly after a breakout season last year, but we need him to get back to his old form to help solidify our quivering secondary.

Barnes has, surprisingly, been the better of the two “starters”. He is 29th in defensive grade, 70th in run defence, 16th in tackling, 36th in blitzing, and 7th in coverage. He also ranks tied 6th in pressures, 13th in missed tackle rate, 35th in run stops, and tied 40th in catch rate allowed. He has bounced back and is approaching living up to the contract extension he signed before last season. However, it is Rodrigo who has been our best linebacker according to PFF, despite playing a third of Barnes’ snaps. He is tied for 5th in defensive grade, 5th in run defence, 18th in tackling, 32nd in blitzing, and 30th in coverage. He ranks tied for 37th in pressures, 23rd in missed tackle rate, 64th in run stops, and 66th in catch rate allowed. He has earned a starting spot somewhere that can maximise his talents against the run and as a blitzer, but I fear this won’t be in Detroit due to the drafting of Rolder to fill the WILL role long-term.

Speaking of Rolder, he has only appeared in the Panthers game, playing seven snaps before being pulled, as he wasn’t ready for the RPOs Carolina were going to spam like a teenager who found a glitchy combo to mollywhop their younger brother when playing against him on Street Fighter. He made two run stops on those snaps, but he also gave up a perfect catch rate on the two targets he faced. He at least had a bigger impact on his few snaps compared to White, who has played nearly 10x the number of snaps Rolder has. White has the same number of run stops, has also given up a perfect catch rate, and has not registered a pressure despite his blitzing being his calling card. Of course, he is now on IR with his broken forearm, but I would not bring him back unless we were 2024 levels of desperate at the position. Both of these have been outplayed by Nowaske, who is continuing to be a consistent rotational piece. His defensive grade ranks 3rd in the positional group, and he has been our second-best coverage backer behind Barnes according to PFF. As the LB5 who also does special teams, you could not ask for more from him.

Overall, we need Jack to start playing like his old self, Rodrigo and Nowaske to get more snaps, Barnes to carry on being sneakily good, and Rolder to develop like the coaching staff was hoping he would when they drafted him above consensus projection. If not, we could still be susceptible to the run and to being burnt over the middle in the passing game.

Cornerback: B- So we know this group has been disappointing; no need to tread over old ground and beat the same dead horse over and over. There have been coverage busts, missed assignments, and a huge lack of luck (especially in the Jets game). There are some small slivers of hope, though, especially after the Cardinals game.

The biggest bit of hope is the play of Rakestraw. He has only played 89 snaps, but has been our second-best corner according to PFF. Of all corners to have played at least 85 snaps (108 such players; yes, the filter is set up to include Rakestraw), he ranks 39th in defensive grade, 30th in coverage grade, and 51st in tackling grade. His run defence has left a little to be desired (98th), but for actually covering receivers (10th-best catch rate allowed), he has been really good in his “rotational” role (he is coming on when we go to nickel with McCreary sliding inside on those reps). However, I argue that coming out of the bye, he should get more snaps due to his good play.

Speaking of McCreary, he has been up and down in terms of his play, much like the secondary as a whole. He had so manyyy PBUs against the Cardinals, but other than that, he has been mid at best. He is 82nd in defensive grade, 14th in run defence, 58th in tackling, but 92nd in coverage grade. He is also 52nd in catch rate allowed. He has been okay in the Marlon Humphrey role (outside in base, inside in subpackages), but we can hope that the move back to more man coverage leads to an improvement in his coverage. We certainly saw such an improvement in Reed’s play of Reed; the Cardinals game was his best of the season so far. He ranks 37th in defensive grade, tied 40th in run defence, 21st in tackling, and tied 38th in coverage. He is also 57th in catch rate allowed. While he hasn’t looked like a CB1 for most of the season, the last game was encouraging, and hopefully he is able to carry this momentum out of the bye against a better passing team in the Packers.

Ya-Sin was disappointing before he got injured, and perhaps a move back to being the first guy off the bench/spot-starting will get the best out of him by not overexposing him in situations that are unfavourable to him. Dorsey was his average self on his 2 snaps on defence, but his main role on the team is, of course, as a master gunner. Rookie Abney looked okay in his minimal snaps before the Cardinals game, but it now appears he is transitioning to free safety for the foreseeable future, so he is still a “to be determined”. If Reed and Rakestraw can continue their good play, and/or we are able to make a move to add another starting-level outside corner, the outlook for the defence is a lot brighter than it seemed a couple of weeks ago.

Safety: C- Overall, this has been the most disappointing group overall. There have been some good performances (Izien versus the Jets, and Clark versus the Saints), but there’s also been a lot of bad (Maddox versus the Bills, and Izien versus the Panthers). What perhaps stands out the most is that, of the five “true” safeties to take defensive snaps for the team so far, it could be argued that all five are best in the strong safety role. This means that at least one player is being played out of position on every snap on defence. We do have two true free safeties on the roster technically, but one is on PUP with no exact timeline to return, and the other is a UDFA we signed off of Pittsburgh’s practice squad who has been inactive every week since. Given how the defensive scheme operates, this has been mismanagement of the highest degree, as we knew the situation with Kerby, yet we did not bring in anyone of starting quality who can play his kind of role.

Surprisingly, of all the safeties to play at least 150 defensive snaps so far this season, Clark ranks 18th in defensive grade. He is 35th in run defence, 16th in tackling, 3rd in blitzing, and 21st in coverage grade. One could argue this is a symptom of his early play before he was forced into the free safety role, which he doesn’t have the athleticism for, and so has subsequently tanked his level of play. Izien ranks 34th in defensive grade, tied 51st in run defence, 25th in tackling, 7th in blitzing, and 32nd in coverage. Given how the team benched him against the Cardinals, it is clear that they see his performance against the Panthers as his true level compared to his games against Buffalo and New York. However, there is a good player in there, and Izien should still stick around as a spot starter at nickel/strong safety in the same way that Branch can play both those positions at a high level, while also contributing on special teams.

Mills was our second-best safety according to PFF, but he is now a free agent after we used all three of his elevations from the practice squad. Maddox is out for the season after getting injured against the Bills, but he was our worst safety by far (by virtue of his coverage busts). Harper is also injured, but did not show the same level of promise as he did when he stepped in for Kerby last season. Hopefully, more steady linebacker and corner play will help things, as they won’t have to stress as much. Likewise, the return of one Brian Branch could also open things up due to the stress he places on offensive game plans, especially over the middle where he is so good in the overhang/robber role. If we are able to get something out of Kerby, or even Bishop Fitzgerald, in the free safety role, that could do wonders for the deep coverage, and thus the safety play of the whole team.

Special Teams

Kicker: A Bates has been good this season on field goals, having not missed a single attempt, including extra points. His weakness has been kickoffs, though he still ranks tied for 9th in average field position and 11th in yards per return. His kickoffs also rank 19th in average hang time, which certainly helps the former two stats, as it gives the coverage team time to set their blocks and tackle the returner.

Punter: A Fox ranks 3rd in punting grade, 2nd in hang time, and 8th in punts landing inside the 20, but 19th in gross yards per punt, and 13th in net yards per punt. He has also been pretty damn good holding for field goals. The reason he isn’t ranked higher than Bates is that, as observed on stream by Matt, he hasn’t been trying to pin teams deep as much as he has in previous years, hence why his net and gross yardage are not as great as you’d think. Maybe I’m also dinging him a bit unfairly because NFL Europe refuse to deliver my Rivalries jersey with his name on, so I’m a bit moody when it comes to Fox.

Long Snapper: A* Hogan is the GOAT. We’ve been perfect on field goals and extra points, he’s been snapping well to Fox for the punts, and he’s 5th of all players in his position in PFF grade. Plus, he signed his jersey for me, so top marks for him.

Coverage Units: A+ Our opponents currently start with the worst field position of any team in the league. Tay Martin has been a beast; he is 15th in PFF grade among all special teamers to play at least 50 snaps, Eric O’Neill is 57th, and Dorsey is 99th. Much improvement from last season, when kick coverage was a major issue.

Returning: C Who would have thought I’d be so upset with TK getting an injury because of his special teams? For a man who was usually practice-squaded because of his lack of special teams ability, he was our best returner, and now we have to look elsewhere. But even saying that, we haven’t been getting much from our return units like we used to with Kalif back for punts. Of all returners with at least 5 returns (punt and kick combined), TK ranked 6th in punt return average, but 44th in kick return average. Saylors is tied for 29th in kick return average under the same filter. It would be nice to get an explosive return at some point.

What do you think of my ratings of the positional groups so far this season? Who was I too nice to, and who was I overly critical of? Let me know below.

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